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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd