Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
