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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.